The draft settlement question which the governments of Belize and Guatemala propose to put to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for a final and binding decision, is scheduled to be tabled at Cabinet – the Government of Belize’s chief policy-making arm – next Tuesday, October 21.

In making the announcement today at a press conference in Belize City, Prime Minister Dean Barrow told the media that the so-called “compromis,” or settlement agreement, is just about finalized and should be tabled at Cabinet’s next session by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wilfred “Sedi” Elrington.

Before any case on the Belize-Guatemala dispute could be taken to the ICJ, the Belize Government must, by law, have a national referendum, so that Belizeans can say whether they agree with the ICJ deciding such a critical and sensitive national question.

“We operate always on the basis of the fundamental safeguards, that whatever is signed, can only be ultimately put to the ICJ if the people of this country agree, in voting in a referendum, if we reach that stage,” said P.M. Barrow. “No doubt, this ‘compromis’ will feature greatly in helping people to make up their mind, because, as I said, it is not just an abstract question.”

Exactly what will that question entail? Amandala asked the Prime Minister whether the ICJ question involves any question of land cession, seeing that Guatemala’s long-standing position includes an unfounded claim to half of Belize’s territory. 

“No,” Barrow replied. “For us, for me—because I, personally, am convinced based on all the advice I’ve had, on all the opinions I have seen from the top international lawyers—I, personally, am convinced that the Guatemalans have no case. I, personally, am convinced that the ICJ will be obliged to rule in Belize’s favor.”

He conceded, however, that even if Belize agrees to go to court, there is no guarantee that we would get everything we want.

“I concede, as a lawyer, that there is always a thing called litigation risk, and that is why it is not ultimately what I feel, it is what the Belizean people feel,” he told us.

The Government plans to undertake public consultations after the draft settlement agreement question goes to Cabinet, which, Barrow said, should outline the pros and the cons of taking the dispute to the ICJ.

“People will look at what will be submitted to determine whether even with respect to the way the question is framed, if that is something they like, if that is something they can live with, if that is something they don’t like, and so, in order to put them in the best possible position, to exercise their sovereign judgment,” the Prime Minister stated.

The settlement question would next go to the National Assembly for ratification, even though the only required approval in law is the approval of the Belizean people by way of a national referendum.

That referendum, said Barrow, comes after the National Assembly gets to say whether the proposed ICJ question is acceptable to them.

Once the draft question is circulated, the UDP will then take a formal position, and “I imagine the PUP will do the same thing.”

This is an interesting point in the timeline, as Barrow made it clear at today’s press conference that he will be rallying political support for taking the ICJ route to resolution. He told the media that he will urge his party, the United Democratic Party, and its supporters to vote “yes” in any possible referendum.

Of interest is that the committee handling the ICJ question is made up of officials of both the UDP and the PUP. Most notable Opposition representatives are former Foreign Affairs Minister and PUP campaign manager Eamon Courtenay, and former Chief Negotiator for the failed Belize-Guatemala talks, Assad Shoman.

Longstanding members of the advisory council for Belize-Guatemala talks, Dylan Vernon and Gilda Lewis, will play a key role in the public education campaign, said Barrow.

“I would have to be a fool or worse a quisling if I were not determined – and I speak for the Cabinet in this – to have this matter be handled as properly as anybody could ever want. This is a fundamental issue and there will be no playing fast and loose with this issue. I give that commitment in the most absolute terms,” the Prime Minister told the media.

The UDP has a controlling number of seats in the House of Representatives, and has the biggest voting bloc in the Senate, and so even without PUP support, the ruling party could control the outcome of a National Assembly vote.

In defending his support for taking the dispute to the ICJ, Barrow told us that, “…the whole idea is to get an ICJ decision that would put ‘paid’ once and for all to Guatemala’s claim; that would vindicate the borders of this country, as we know them; and that would provide the way for a proper demarcation in those terms.”

He accepted, however, that, “…there is always a chance that you don’t get all that you want, but in my view our case is so unassailable that I am certainly prepared to take that chance.”

Despite Guatemala’s position that over 4,000 square miles of Belize, as well as the cayes, are theirs, the Belize Constitution clearly sets out a definition of Belize’s territorial lands and waters.

However, along its western and southern borders with Guatemala, Belize’s security forces continue to face tough challenges in fighting repeated encroachments into Belize’s territory by Guatemalans who cross the border to log, harvest xate, fish, and clear land while disregarding the authority of the Government of Belize.

The last reported incursion into Belize’s territory resulted in a machete assault last month on a Belize Defence Force soldier at a Cayo observation post.

The Organization of American States (OAS) continues to be the overseer of talks between Belize and Guatemala, even after an extended attempt under the OAS auspices to solve the dispute via diplomacy has failed.

(Belize’s French Honorary Counsel, Ernesto Vasquez, defines the French term compromis as “mutual agreement” or “compromise.”)